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In February, Brazil's FOB price is 39 cents a bushel cheaper than U.S. costs from the Gulf, meaning Brazil is already a competitive source of soybeans in January. Gulf price.īrazil's transportation costs to China are typically 25 cents to 45 cents less than U.S. The crop will need cooperative weather to finish, but the market already has Brazil's FOB soybean price for January within 27 cents of the U.S. exporters have their best shot to make hay.Īs we speak, Brazil's next soybean crop is off to a good start and is on track for an early record harvest in 2022. For now, China's temporary weakening of demand is unfortunately happening during the very months when U.S. In the larger picture, there is no doubt China will require increasing amounts of soybeans in future years as their economy and living standards continue to grow. Thursday's export sales report showed China was an active buyer of pork again, taking 12,400 metric tons in the latest week. I also suspect China's hog herd is still contending with African swine fever. We have heard the reports of soybean crush plants being closed this fall in an effort to conserve scarce electricity. Something has caused China's demand for soybean meal to weaken significantly this fall, and it is difficult to say what it is. In late August, spot soybean meal prices on China's Dalian exchange fell below their 100-day average and, by early November, had reached their lowest prices in a year. In both of those seasons, however, soybean meal prices on China's Dalian exchange were moving higher, showing signs of rising demand within China. Two recent examples of that were last season and in 2017-18. Cheaper soybean prices would stimulate an increase in domestic crush, but ending soybean stocks would finish significantly higher than USDA's current estimate of 340 mb.Ĭhina is the world's most aggressive buyer of soybeans, and there have been years when China's appetite was large enough to make large purchases from the U.S., while also absorbing a record harvest from Brazil. finished out the season at this pace, exports would end 487 mb less than USDA's current estimate of 2.050 bb. Of those sales, 749 million bushels (mb) are marked for China, a 31% smaller amount than last year at this time. soybean export commitments totaled 1.366 billion bushels (bb), down 29% from a year ago. is running out of time and losing its opportunity to make the easiest soybean sales of the year to the world's largest customer. ( …)Īs for the fundamental outlook, the situation is even more bearish today, as the U.S. Prices have had a bit of a roller-coaster ride since then but are close to the same level they were when I first wrote about the increasingly bearish situation. soybean prices had quickly turned from a bullish outlook to a bearish one with little warning. 14: Adding date and time for Falcon 9/Starlink 4-4 Angara-A5/Test Flight delayed Adding date and window for LauncherOne/”Above the Clouds” Ariane 5/James Webb Space Telescope delayed Adding time for Soyuz/OneWeb 12 Adding Falcon 9/Starlink in January Soyuz/OneWeb 14 delayed Adding date for Atlas 5/USSF 8 Adding Soyuz/OneWeb 13 Adding Soyuz/Progress 80P Adding Soyuz/Galileo 29 & 30 Adding Atlas 5/USSF 12 Adding timeframe for Ariane 5/MEASAT 3d & GSAT 24 Adding timeframe for Atlas 5/CST-100 Starliner Orbital Flight Test 2ĭec.Soybean meal prices on China's Dalian exchange have weakened considerably since late September, corresponding to a reduction in this fall's purchases from China. 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